Quick answer: Canada's average diesel price should ease from about $2.55 per litre in October 2026 to $2.25 in December, averaging about $2.40 in Q4 (low case $2.25, high case $2.65) and $2.15 in early 2027. These are TruckerPro estimates, not official forecasts. Natural Resources Canada (NRCan) put the national average at 260.7 cents ($2.61) on October 2, 2026.
Sources were checked on October 10, 2026: NRCan's fuel tax table and daily retail diesel prices (NRCan's price pages were offline on October 10, so this page uses its daily table as published through October 2, 2026), the Canada Revenue Agency's GST/HST rates, Statistics Canada table 18-10-0001-01, Ontario's weekly fuel price survey, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Short-Term Energy Outlook of October 6, 2026 and its daily spot prices, Bank of Canada exchange rates, and federal, Alberta and Prince Edward Island tax notices.
Canadian diesel prices at a glance
Diesel costs far more than it did a year ago, and TruckerPro's outlook points to a slow decline rather than a quick drop. Across the 17 cities in Statistics Canada's survey, the simple average was 228.2 cents per litre in August 2026, up from 152.3 cents in August 2025, and prices climbed again in September.
| Question | Answer |
|---|---|
| National average, October 2, 2026 | 260.7 ¢/L ($2.61), taxes included (NRCan) |
| Same price per U.S. gallon | About C$9.87, or about US$6.93 at the Bank of Canada rate for October 2 |
| Ontario average | 250.0 ¢/L in the week of October 5, 2026 (Ontario survey) |
| Cheapest and priciest city, August 2026 | Edmonton 205.5 ¢/L, Montréal 256.6 ¢/L (Statistics Canada) |
| Q4 2026 outlook, base case (our estimate) | About $2.40/L (range $2.25 to $2.65): about $2.55 in October, $2.40 in November and $2.25 in December |
| Ontario outlook, Q4 2026 (our estimate) | Toronto about $2.30/L in the base case |
| Q1 2027 outlook, base case (our estimate) | About $2.15/L, range $1.95 to $2.60 |
| United States, October 5, 2026 | US$6.199 per gallon (EIA), about C$2.33/L |
| Federal excise tax on diesel | 0 ¢/L to January 31, 2027; scheduled at 2 ¢ in February and March and 4 ¢ from April 1, 2027 |
| Federal consumer carbon charge | Removed April 1, 2025 |
What is the diesel price in Canada right now?
Canada's average retail diesel price was 260.7 cents per litre on October 2, 2026, according to NRCan's daily price table, which includes taxes. That is down from 276.7 cents on September 18, the top of a fast climb from 239.4 cents on September 1. September as a whole also averaged 260.7 cents, up from 231.1 cents for August 5 to 31 (TruckerPro averages of NRCan's weekday figures, the method NRCan uses for its monthly prices).
NRCan splits each price into parts, and the September numbers show where the money went. Averaged the same way, September taxes were 39.0 cents per litre, the retail (marketing) margin was 8.0 cents and the refining margin was 127.2 cents, nearly half of the 260.7-cent average. The remaining 86.6 cents is mainly the cost of crude oil.
Ontario's weekly fuel price survey averaged 250.0 cents per litre in the week of October 5, 2026, down from 261.7 cents on September 21 but up from 136.6 cents a year earlier. Within Ontario that week, prices ran from 246.9 cents in London to 267.3 cents in Kenora. Across its weekly surveys, Ontario averaged 221.6 cents in August and 251.0 cents in September.
Statistics Canada's monthly table, whose latest month is August 2026, shows how far prices have climbed this year:
| Month (2026) | Average of 17 cities (¢/L) | Lowest city | Highest city |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 155.8 | Edmonton 137.7 | Montréal 177.1 |
| February | 167.7 | Edmonton 144.1 | Montréal 192.4 |
| March | 208.5 | Regina 183.1 | Montréal 241.5 |
| April | 220.0 | Regina 193.7 | Vancouver 255.3 |
| May | 219.3 | Edmonton 195.6 | Québec City 244.0 |
| June | 198.1 | Calgary 168.8 | Vancouver 222.9 |
| July | 209.5 | Edmonton 179.1 | Montréal 237.1 |
| August | 228.2 | Edmonton 205.5 | Montréal 256.6 |
The table shows self-serve diesel prices. The average is TruckerPro's simple average of the 17 cities, because this Statistics Canada table has no national diesel figure; its September data had not been published when this was checked.
To check the latest price yourself, NRCan's fuel prices page links to its daily diesel table by city, which covers the last 60 days and also gives weekly (Wednesday to Tuesday) and monthly averages, and to a map of prices by province. Ontario publishes its survey every Monday.
What is Canada's diesel price forecast for Q4 2026?
Our base case is a national average of about $2.40 per litre for October to December 2026: roughly $2.55 in October, $2.40 in November and $2.25 in December. This is TruckerPro's estimate, not an official forecast. NRCan and Statistics Canada report prices that have already happened; the forward-looking inputs come from the EIA.
| Scenario | What it assumes | Q4 2026 average | Q1 2027 average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low | Middle East supply recovers faster: U.S. wholesale diesel falls to US$3.57 per gallon in November and December and averages US$3.12 in Q1 2027 (the EIA's Q1 and Q2 2027 levels); US$1 = C$1.40 | About $2.25/L | About $1.95/L |
| Base | The EIA's October 2026 path: wholesale diesel at US$4.61, US$4.21 and US$3.84 per gallon for October to December, then US$3.71, US$3.55 and US$3.44; US$1 = C$1.4271 | About $2.40/L | About $2.15/L |
| High | Disruption persists: wholesale diesel returns to September's US$4.97 per gallon in November and December and averages US$4.61 in Q1 2027; US$1 = C$1.44 | About $2.65/L | About $2.60/L |
All three scenarios share the base-case October estimate of about $2.55, because October is already under way. In the high case, November and December run near $2.70.
How the outlook is built
The method, step by step:
- Start from NRCan's September 2026 national average of 260.7 cents per litre (TruckerPro's average of its daily figures).
- Add the change in U.S. wholesale diesel between September (US$4.97 per gallon in the EIA's October 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook) and each scenario's price, converted to Canadian cents per litre at the Bank of Canada rate.
- Add about 8% for GST, HST or QST on that change, because sales tax applies to the pre-tax price.
- Allow 5 cents per litre for retail margins to recover from September's squeeze, when NRCan's marketing margin averaged 8.0 cents.
- Add the federal excise tax when it is scheduled to return at 2 cents per litre in February and March 2027.
- Use the base-case October figure in every scenario, because early-October wholesale prices were close to the EIA's October level of US$4.61 per gallon: EIA spot prices for ultra-low sulfur diesel in New York Harbor and on the U.S. Gulf Coast ran from US$4.51 to US$4.75 from October 1 to 6.
Our national estimates leave out the Alberta and Prince Edward Island tax pauses, which the provincial table applies. As a check, steps 2 and 3 applied to August and September 2026 predict a rise of about 28 to 29 cents; NRCan's national figure rose about 29.5 cents, from a 231.1-cent average for August 5 to 31 to 260.7 cents in September.
Rules of thumb for updating the outlook yourself (illustrative conversions at US$1 = C$1.4271, before sales tax):
- A US$10 per barrel move in crude oil is about 9.0 cents per litre.
- A US$0.10 per gallon move in wholesale diesel is about 3.8 cents per litre.
- A one-cent move in the exchange rate is about 1.1 cents per litre at the EIA's Q4 wholesale price of about US$4.23 per gallon.
Early October is running a little above the base path. NRCan's national figure was 262.8 cents on October 1 and 260.7 cents on October 2, against about 255 cents for October in the base case.
When will diesel prices go down in Canada?
Diesel prices in Canada should start to ease in November and December 2026 if the EIA's October outlook holds, but none of our scenarios brings them back to 2025 levels before April 2027. In August 2025, Statistics Canada's city averages ran from 134.9 to 177.5 cents per litre. In TruckerPro's base case, the national average falls about 30 cents from October to December and reaches about $2.10 per litre by March 2027. Only the low case, with a faster Middle East recovery, goes below $2: about $1.95 on average in Q1 2027. U.S. prices are on a similar path: the EIA expects U.S. retail diesel to stay above US$6 a gallon in October and then come down gradually.
Three things have to happen for prices to fall:
- Middle East oil flows recover. The EIA assumes flows stay constrained through Q4 2026, with crude production shut-ins averaging 4.5 million barrels per day, and expects most of the region's production back to pre-conflict levels by the end of Q2 2027.
- Diesel stocks rebuild. Distillate inventories on the U.S. East Coast were 32% below their five-year average in September, and the EIA expects them to stay 20% to 30% below average through the winter.
- Wholesale prices fall and retail follows. The EIA's path takes U.S. wholesale diesel from US$4.97 per gallon in September to US$3.84 in December and US$3.44 in March 2027. The EIA also notes that drops in wholesale margins do not reach the pump right away.
Several things could delay relief. New attacks on oil infrastructure could push prices up again: attacks on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline helped push Brent to US$131 a barrel on September 15. A cold winter would lift heating oil demand, a weaker Canadian dollar would raise costs, and the federal excise tax is scheduled to step up on February 1 and April 1, 2027. One thing could speed relief: any extra crude oil or petroleum products put on the market as a result of the G7's October 2 announcement, which the EIA's outlook does not include. The outlook does include the exchanges of 40 million barrels of U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve crude announced on September 29.
What are diesel prices in Canada by province?
Alberta had Canada's cheapest diesel in Statistics Canada's latest monthly data (Edmonton, 205.5 cents per litre in August 2026), and Montréal the most expensive (256.6 cents), ahead of Québec City (252.3) and Vancouver (251.7). Alberta should stay cheapest this fall because it paused its 13-cent fuel tax on October 1. On October 2, 2026, NRCan's daily table showed Calgary at 235.0 cents, Toronto at 253.8 cents and Halifax at 267.2 cents. Statistics Canada reports prices by city, so the table shows each province through one surveyed city, with TruckerPro's base-case estimate for October to December 2026.
| City | August 2026 actual (¢/L) | Provincial diesel tax (¢/L) | Sales tax | Q4 2026 base estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. John's, NL | 240.2 | 9.50 | HST 15% | About $2.50 |
| Charlottetown and Summerside, PE | 240.5 | 14.15, suspended Sept. 26, 2026 to Jan. 31, 2027 | HST 15% | About $2.35 |
| Halifax, NS | 236.6 | 15.40 | HST 14% | About $2.45 |
| Saint John, NB | 236.3 | 15.45 | HST 15% | About $2.45 |
| Montréal, QC | 256.6 | 20.2 | GST 5% and QST 9.975% | About $2.65 |
| Toronto, ON | 221.1 | 9.0 | HST 13% | About $2.30 |
| Winnipeg, MB | 212.8 | 12.5 | GST 5% | About $2.20 |
| Regina, SK | 209.1 | 15.0 | GST 5% | About $2.15 |
| Calgary, AB | 210.6 | 13.0, paused Oct. 1 to Dec. 31, 2026 | GST 5% | About $2.05 |
| Vancouver, BC | 251.7 | 27.50 (15.00 outside the Vancouver and Victoria areas) | GST 5% | About $2.60 |
| Whitehorse, YT | 222.5 | 7.2 | GST 5% | About $2.30 |
| Yellowknife, NT | 207.2 | 9.1 | GST 5% | About $2.15 |
August prices are Statistics Canada's self-serve monthly averages. Tax rates come from NRCan's fuel tax table (rates last updated September 2, 2026) and its notes on the Alberta and PEI pauses. Nova Scotia's HST has been 14% since April 1, 2025, according to the Canada Revenue Agency, although NRCan's table still lists 15%. Each estimate adds the base-case change since August, with that province's sales tax, removes any paused provincial tax and rounds to the nearest 5 cents. The four Atlantic provinces also list a clean fuels adjuster of 3.3 to 8.0 cents per litre on diesel.
The Alberta pause takes about 13.7 cents off each litre (13 cents plus the GST on it), and PEI's suspension is worth about 16.3 cents (14.15 cents plus 15% HST).
Why are diesel prices so high in Canada?
Diesel prices in Canada are high this fall because four forces push in the same direction: crude oil disrupted by the conflict in the Middle East, a diesel refining margin that is high by historical standards, winter heating demand and a weaker Canadian dollar.
Crude oil and the Middle East conflict
Brent crude averaged US$114 per barrel in September 2026, US$23 more than in August, after attacks on oil infrastructure and tankers around the Middle East, according to the EIA. Brent spot prices reached US$135.51 on October 2, above the September 15 high of about US$131, one day after the EIA finalized the inputs for its October outlook. On October 6, Brent was US$125.44 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was US$96.24. The EIA forecasts Brent at US$105 for Q4 2026 and US$84 for 2027 as a whole.
Diesel refining margins and low stocks
The refining margin made up 127.2 cents of NRCan's September national average, and the market behind it is still tight. The EIA reports that distillate crack spreads rose throughout September; its heating oil to Brent futures crack spread was US$2.44 per gallon in September, up from US$2.13 in August. The EIA expects crack spreads to stay high compared with historical averages because U.S. distillate inventories stay below their 2021 to 2025 average through 2027.
That margin is also why diesel costs far more than gasoline right now. In September, NRCan's national diesel price averaged 260.7 cents per litre, against 187.6 cents for regular gasoline, and the refining margin was 127.2 cents for diesel against 58.7 cents for gasoline (TruckerPro averages of NRCan's daily figures).
Winter heating oil demand
Heating oil and diesel are practically the same fuel and are made at the same time, so heating demand in fall and winter puts pressure on diesel prices, the EIA explains. This winter starts tight: the EIA says U.S. homes that heat with oil face prices more than 30% higher than last winter. Canada is part of that market, because most U.S. East Coast distillate imports come from Canada and they typically peak from December to February.
The Canadian dollar
Benchmark crude and diesel prices are quoted in U.S. dollars, so a weaker Canadian dollar raises the cost in Canada. The Bank of Canada rate was C$1.4271 per U.S. dollar on October 9, 2026, compared with a Q3 average of C$1.3993. At the EIA's Q4 wholesale price, that 2.78-cent move adds about 3.1 cents per litre before sales tax.
Which fuel taxes change before spring 2027?
Federal fuel taxes will not raise diesel prices in Q4 2026, because the excise tax stays at zero until January 31, 2027. Alberta and Prince Edward Island have paused their provincial taxes, and the first federal step up is scheduled for February 1, 2027.
- Federal excise tax. The 4-cent-per-litre tax on diesel, in effect at that rate since 1987, has been suspended since April 20, 2026. On September 2, 2026, Finance Canada extended the suspension to January 31, 2027. Under the government's plan, the tax would be 2 cents per litre from February 1 to March 31, 2027 and return to the full 4 cents on April 1, 2027. With GST, each step adds about 2.1 cents per litre (about 2.3 cents in Ontario with HST).
- Federal carbon charge. The consumer fuel charge was removed effective April 1, 2025, so it is not part of today's price. NRCan's tax table notes that only Quebec collects a carbon tax on fuels. Our carbon tax explainer covers the federal charge's removal and what it used to add to diesel.
- Alberta. The 13-cent provincial fuel tax is suspended from October 1 to December 31, 2026, and the province says the earliest it would restart collection is January 1, 2027. Its fuel tax relief program resets the rate each quarter (January 1, April 1, July 1 and October 1) from the average WTI price over the 20 trading days before the 16th of the month before the quarter starts. At US$90 or more the tax is suspended; at US$85 to US$89.99 it is 4.5 cents; at US$80 to US$84.99 it is 9 cents; below US$80 it is the full 13 cents. The rate cannot rise more than 9 cents in one quarter. Under that formula, the EIA's WTI path (about US$97 in November and US$94 in December) would keep the tax suspended from January to March 2027, but the province can change course: from July 1 to September 30, 2026, it replaced the program with a one-time $100 Alberta Energy Rebate for eligible Albertans.
- Prince Edward Island. The provincial tax on all grades of gasoline and on diesel (14.15 cents per litre on diesel) is set to zero from September 26, 2026 to January 31, 2027, according to the Island Regulatory and Appeals Commission.
- Sales tax on top. GST or HST (plus QST in Quebec) applies to crude, refining and marketing costs, the federal excise tax and provincial road taxes, NRCan explains, so every pre-tax change is 5% to 15% larger at the pump.
How did our Q3 2026 forecast do?
TruckerPro's Q3 2026 forecast missed badly. Published in May, it projected a national average of $1.62 to $1.78 per litre; official data put actual prices about 30 cents above the top of that band in July and more than 80 cents above it in September.
| Measure | Q3 2026 forecast | Actual, official data |
|---|---|---|
| National | $1.62 to $1.78 | 209.5 ¢ in July and 228.2 ¢ in August (TruckerPro's simple average of 17 Statistics Canada cities; Statistics Canada's table has no national diesel figure); 260.7 ¢ in September (NRCan) |
| Ontario | $1.69 to $1.78 | 224.9 ¢ Q3 average (Ontario survey, 13 weeks) |
| Alberta | $1.55 to $1.65 | Calgary 184.0 ¢ in July and 210.6 ¢ in August (Statistics Canada) |
| British Columbia | $1.85 to $1.92 | Vancouver 235.4 ¢ in July and 251.7 ¢ in August (Statistics Canada) |
Three things went wrong:
- It was below the market on day one. In May 2026, every one of the 17 cities in Statistics Canada's survey averaged more than 195 cents per litre.
- The supply shock was far larger than its high case. That forecast's worst case was $1.90 per litre. The EIA estimates Middle East crude shut-ins peaked at 10.9 million barrels per day in May, and diesel crack spreads rose throughout September.
- It counted a tax that no longer existed. It added a federal carbon levy of about 21 cents per litre, although the consumer carbon charge was removed on April 1, 2025. That error raised the forecast, so the market miss was even larger than the table shows.
This edition publishes its method and every input, ties each scenario to stated wholesale diesel and exchange-rate assumptions, and replaces the quarterly forecast pages, so future updates stay on this one URL.
What should carriers do about fuel surcharges now?
Tie your fuel surcharge to a published weekly price, reset the base price in every contract, and adjust it weekly in both directions. Prices can jump fast: Ontario's weekly average rose 16.2 cents per litre between the September 8 and September 14, 2026 surveys, so a monthly or fixed surcharge falls behind.
- Name the index in writing. Use NRCan's weekly average (Wednesday to Tuesday) for the city or region where your trucks fuel, or Ontario's Monday survey for Ontario lanes. Avoid the national average for regional work: city averages were 51.1 cents apart in August 2026.
- Reset the base. Illustrative example: with a base of $1.70 per litre, an index of $2.40 and a truck burning 40 litres per 100 km, the surcharge must recover $0.28 per kilometre, or $280 on a 1,000 km lane. The fuel surcharge calculator runs the same math per mile, in U.S. gallons and miles per gallon, from your base price, current price and fuel economy, and our fuel surcharge guide explains the percentage formula and per-mile surcharge tables.
- Adjust weekly, up and down. In the base case, diesel falls about 30 cents between October and December. A surcharge that tracks the weekly index passes that drop to shippers on time, which makes the next increase easier to defend.
- Put tax dates in the contract. Flag January 1, 2027 (the earliest date Alberta could restart its fuel tax), January 31, 2027 (the end of PEI's suspension), and February 1 and April 1, 2027 (the scheduled federal excise steps).
- Check fuel cost and fuel tax per trip. The fuel calculator estimates trip fuel cost from distance in miles, fuel economy in miles per gallon and a per-gallon diesel price, and the IFTA calculator works out fuel tax owed or credited by jurisdiction.
In TruckerPro, each customer lane rate card stores a fuel surcharge percentage with an effective date and an optional expiration date, and every change to the rate or surcharge is logged with the old and new values. The IFTA reporting module calculates a quarterly breakdown by jurisdiction from fuel transactions and mileage. Feature availability varies by plan; see current plans, and fuel management for the fuel features.
Frequently asked questions
How much is diesel in Canada right now?
Canada's average retail diesel price was 260.7 cents per litre on October 2, 2026, the latest figure we could check in Natural Resources Canada's daily price table. Ontario's weekly survey averaged 250.0 cents per litre in the week of October 5, 2026. Both figures include taxes, and prices vary by city and province.
Will diesel prices go down in Canada by the end of 2026?
Probably, but not to 2025 levels. If the U.S. Energy Information Administration's October 2026 outlook holds, the national average falls from about $2.55 per litre in October to about $2.25 in December in TruckerPro's base case. A new supply disruption could keep prices near $2.70 in November and December instead.
How high will diesel prices go in Canada?
TruckerPro's high case, which returns wholesale diesel to its September 2026 level in November and December, puts the Q4 2026 national average near $2.65 per litre, with those two months near $2.70. Natural Resources Canada's daily national figure reached 276.7 cents per litre on September 18, 2026, the highest in its daily table from August 5 to October 2, three days after Brent crude hit US$131 a barrel.
Which province has the cheapest diesel in Canada?
Alberta. An Alberta city had the lowest monthly average in 17 of the 20 months from January 2025 to August 2026 in Statistics Canada's survey, and Alberta paused its 13-cent provincial fuel tax from October 1 to December 31, 2026. In August 2026, Edmonton averaged 205.5 cents per litre and Montréal 256.6 cents.
Will diesel prices go down in 2027?
Probably, but slowly. The U.S. Energy Information Administration's October 2026 outlook has Brent crude falling from US$105 a barrel in Q4 2026 to US$74 in Q4 2027, and U.S. retail diesel averaging about US$4.50 a gallon in 2027, down from US$5.19 in 2026. Canada's average reaches about $2.10 per litre by March 2027 in TruckerPro's base case, and the full 4-cent federal excise tax is scheduled to return on April 1, 2027.