As of September 10, 2026: The U.S.–Canada trade war can affect trucking through cancelled orders, missing backhauls, changes to shipment eligibility and higher customer costs. Canada's new counter-tariffs took effect on September 8. Separate U.S. proclamations schedule restrictions on specified Canadian products for September 29. Check the goods and the entry date before committing a truck; a higher freight quote cannot resolve an import prohibition.
This update separates announced policy from what freight data can actually show. For shipment preparation and official tariff lookup links, use our US–Canada carrier tariff guide.
What changed in September?
Northbound into Canada: The Department of Finance's September 8 measures cover listed U.S.-origin products at 15%, 25% or 50%, depending on the tariff item. Its affected sectors include steel, dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper, and electronics. Those percentages do not describe every shipment from the United States. Check the official product list and rates.
Goods already moving: CBSA Customs Notice 26-23 provides an exception for qualifying goods in transit to Canada when the surtax took effect. It identifies bills of lading, entry reports and cargo-control documents as possible proof. Preserve the actual records and have the importer or broker confirm whether the shipment meets the notice's conditions. See CBSA's application and in-transit rules.
Southbound into the United States: Two September 8 proclamations schedule import exclusions for certain Canadian alcoholic beverages and certain products covered by the motor-vehicle dispute, effective at 12:01 a.m. Eastern on September 29, 2026. These are upcoming restrictions as of this article's publication, with scope and exceptions defined by the proclamations and annexes. They are not a ban on all Canadian freight or all vehicles. Sources: alcoholic-beverage proclamation and motor-vehicle-dispute proclamation.
For late-September bookings, request a fresh admissibility check from the U.S. importer and customs broker. Record which goods, dates and exceptions their answer covers. Recheck before departure if the order or delivery date changes.
What does the freight evidence show?
Statistics Canada's July 2026 table reports merchandise exports to the U.S. of C$50.517 billion, down 6.6% from June and up 11.2% from July 2025. These are seasonally adjusted trade values on a balance-of-payments basis. They cover merchandise across transport modes; they are not counts of trucks, loads or available backhauls. Statistics Canada, released September 3, 2026.
July also predates the September counter-tariffs. It cannot establish how those measures changed September trucking volumes. A national trade-value decline does not prove a matching decline in a particular fleet's freight.
For an operating decision, compare your own tenders, cancellations, loaded kilometres, empty kilometres and revenue on the same lanes. Keep direction and commodity separate. A busy southbound leg can coexist with a weak northbound return.
How could the trade war affect carriers and drivers?
The following are operating scenarios, not measured industry-wide outcomes.
| Exposure | What could happen | What to check in your fleet |
|---|---|---|
| Customer demand | A shipper postpones orders after landed costs change | Tender count, cancellations and forecast commitments |
| Backhauls | A return customer reduces shipments while outbound demand holds | Empty kilometres and contribution for the complete trip |
| Border preparation | The importer needs revised classification or eligibility advice | Missing documents and broker confirmation before dispatch |
| Driver earnings | Fewer completed trips or more unpaid waiting reduces take-home pay | Paid miles, paid waiting and the actual pay agreement |
| Equipment purchases | Supplier quotes change with sourcing and import treatment | Written delivered price and quote expiry |
| Domestic opportunities | A customer changes suppliers or distribution points | Confirmed tenders, equipment fit and payment terms |
Avoid assuming that all rates must rise. A carrier with scarce specialist capacity may negotiate a stronger rate, while a fleet chasing fewer tenders may face price pressure. Both can happen during the same trade dispute.
A lost backhaul can erase the outbound margin
Consider a deliberately simplified planning example in Canadian dollars:
| Trip assumption | Planned return load | Return load cancelled |
|---|---|---|
| Outbound revenue | C$2,400 | C$2,400 |
| Return revenue | C$1,800 | C$0 |
| Estimated complete-trip cost | C$3,300 | C$3,000 |
| Revenue less estimated trip cost | C$900 | –C$600 |
In this example, cancelling the backhaul saves only C$300 because the truck and driver must still return. The C$1,800 revenue loss reduces the trip result by C$1,500. These are invented planning inputs, not Canadian market rates. Include driver compensation and allocated overhead in your own cost estimate before treating the result as profit.
Before accepting the outbound load, calculate a confirmed-backhaul case and an empty-return case. Use the cost-per-mile calculator with all kilometres or miles consistently, and confirm whether your fuel-cost assumptions still fit your receipts.
A dispatch checklist for the next cross-border load
- Identify the importer, broker, shipment direction and expected entry date.
- Ask the importer or broker to confirm tariff classification, origin, admissibility and applicable measures for the exact goods.
- Save the dated answer with the shipment documents. A pickup address is not proof of origin.
- Confirm the shipper still wants the load moved after reviewing its landed cost.
- Agree in writing on waiting, cancellation, storage and redelivery charges, including who can approve them.
- Check the return load separately and price the possibility that it disappears.
- Recheck policy and broker instructions when the commodity, route or crossing date changes.
Use a distinct line for any agreed carrier service charge. Do not label an ordinary transport surcharge as a government tariff.
Where could new freight opportunities appear?
A change of supplier can create regional pickup work, warehouse transfers or different port connections. Treat those as leads to investigate. Ask existing customers which origins, facilities and delivery windows are changing, then quote against confirmed shipment details.
For a small fleet, one repeatable replacement lane may be more useful than chasing every new tender. Compare payment timing, empty travel, appointment reliability and equipment requirements alongside the rate.
TruckerPro's dispatch software and trip profitability guide can help organize that review. The operational goal is a complete, documented trip that earns enough to cover its costs.
Questions carriers are asking
Does a tariff automatically increase my freight invoice?
No. A customs charge on goods and the price of transportation are separate calculations. Any change to the carrier's charges needs an agreed commercial basis. The carrier tariff guide explains the distinction.
Can I assume CUSMA makes the shipment exempt?
Do not infer an exemption from the agreement's name or a Canadian pickup. Ask the broker which preference, surtax, restriction and exception applies to the particular goods on the entry date.
Should I stop taking U.S.–Canada loads?
Assess each lane and customer. Confirm that the goods can enter, that the paperwork is ready, and that the complete trip works financially. The evidence does not support treating every cross-border load as equally exposed.